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 "page": "https://notionparallax.co.uk/2009/prediction-book",
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  "name": "Ben Doherty",
  "url": "https://notionparallax.co.uk/"
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 "created": "2009-12-26T06:59:18Z",
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 "content_md": "# Prediction Book\n\n\n<p>Through some bizzaro twist of fate my major study has stopped being about the future of the whole world, and has focused in quite a lot. I'll post about this a bit more later on, but as a very quick explanation of what I'm on about...</p>\n<p>Designers make _decisions_ about what to do based on what **they** _know_.  So what happens if they _know_ wrong?</p>\n<p>The ability to '<a title=\"The Ancient Greek aphorism &quot;Know thyself&quot;, Greek: ????? ??????? gn?thi seauton (also ... ?????? ... sauton with the ? contracted), was inscribed in the pronaos (forecourt) of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi - according to the Greek periegetic (travelogue) writer Pausanias (10.24.1).\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_thyself\">know thyself</a>' can be described in modern parlance as <a title=\"or if you are being really picky - &quot;Calibrated probability assessment&quot;\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment\">calibration</a>. This skill varies greatly per person across all their activities i.e. I may be very well calibrated about my ability to complete a particular grade of climb, but very poorly calibrated about the length of time to complete a list of features in a spreadsheet.</p>\n<p>This becomes important when making a decision about something really important. If you are over confident, then you might make some really big mistakes!</p>\n<p><a href=\"http://predictionbook.com/\"><img class=\"alignright\" title=\"Prediction Book front page\" src=\"https://notionparallax.co.uk/assets/fetch.php?cache=cache&amp;media=prediction_book_front_page_screen_shot.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" /></a>I've started testing my calibration on some real events using <a title=\"come on, make some predictions of your own!!\" href=\"http://predictionbook.com/\">Prediction Book</a>, it'll be really interesting to see how well insulated from reality I actually am! Log in and make some predictions of your own and lets pump up the amount of data available to munch through!</p>\n",
 "content_html": "<h1>Prediction Book</h1>\n<p>Through some bizzaro twist of fate my major study has stopped being about the future of the whole world, and has focused in quite a lot. I’ll post about this a bit more later on, but as a very quick explanation of what I’m on about…</p>\n<p>Designers make <em>decisions</em> about what to do based on what <strong>they</strong> <em>know</em>.  So what happens if they <em>know</em> wrong?</p>\n<p>The ability to ‘<a title=\"The Ancient Greek aphorism &quot;Know thyself&quot;, Greek: ????? ??????? gn?thi seauton (also ... ?????? ... sauton with the ? contracted), was inscribed in the pronaos (forecourt) of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi - according to the Greek periegetic (travelogue) writer Pausanias (10.24.1).\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_thyself\">know thyself</a>’ can be described in modern parlance as <a title=\"or if you are being really picky - &quot;Calibrated probability assessment&quot;\" href=\"http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calibrated_probability_assessment\">calibration</a>. This skill varies greatly per person across all their activities i.e. I may be very well calibrated about my ability to complete a particular grade of climb, but very poorly calibrated about the length of time to complete a list of features in a spreadsheet.</p>\n<p>This becomes important when making a decision about something really important. If you are over confident, then you might make some really big mistakes!</p>\n<p><a href=\"http://predictionbook.com/\"><img class=\"alignright\" title=\"Prediction Book front page\" src=\"https://notionparallax.co.uk/assets/fetch.php?cache=cache&amp;media=prediction_book_front_page_screen_shot.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" /></a>I’ve started testing my calibration on some real events using <a title=\"come on, make some predictions of your own!!\" href=\"http://predictionbook.com/\">Prediction Book</a>, it’ll be really interesting to see how well insulated from reality I actually am! Log in and make some predictions of your own and lets pump up the amount of data available to munch through!</p>\n",
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